New Report Posted to Members Area
Intuitive Investing in Motion
Marc Sutin’s Market Analysis Note – Friday February 21, 2020
A Quick Take on the Markit PMI Data –
In the chart below of the Markit February Preliminary PMI’s the black line is Manufacturing, the pink line is the Composite index and the green line is Services.
All 3 series (Composite, Manufacturing & Services) retreated in February (preliminary data) driven by a notable weakening in the service sector.
New orders fell for the first time since the data began in October 2009. New export orders fell for the second month. Despite this business confidence series rose to an 8-month high though the level is subdued. Maybe we should take heart that it did not deteriorate. Markit said that firms “highlighted ongoing global uncertainty and the outbreak of the coronavirus” which resulted in a greater hesitancy among clients to place orders.
The Manufacturing PMI at 50.8 retreated towards the lows of the fourth quarter at 50.3. A reading of 50.8 is almost no growth and Markit said that it was due to a “near-stalling of orders”.
Recall that in the fourth quarter of 2019 investors were concerned that manufacturing weakness would bleed thru to the service sector and raise the probability of a recession. Markets were encouraged and equities rallied as the manufacturing PMI’s improved.
The coronavirus outbreak seems to have thrown a monkey wrench into the recovery.
Now it is the Services PMI that is driving the weakness as it fell sharply to 49.4 form 53.3. This drove the Composite PMI down to 49.6 which means contraction., albeit slight. Markit wrote “With the exception of the government-shutdown of 2013, US business activity contracted for the first time since the global financial crisis”....MORE.....
Be An Informed Stock Market Investor; Find Opportunity
Have you ever worked on an equity trading desk? It’s Intense and exhilarating at the same time. The background chatter from the traders, the soft cross-talk from the TV monitors all enhancing the news flow that is coming to the traders at their trading stations. All this as the financial markets create their own dynamic in which investors get the opportunity to risk capital with the intention of reaping profits.
While news moves markets it’s the interpretation of the news through a melding of the technical position of the stock market with the linkages between economic data and movements in the currency, bond and commodity markets that create opportunity. The intention of our Blog is to help you seize that opportunity.
When the ISM data is released do you know what data within the report could move which market, which sectors? Can you tell from the stock market’s reaction what it is saying about its view of the data? That’s the tale of the tape. We’ll help you read it.
Marc Sutin is President of Intuitive Analysis, LLC. As President he serves as analyst, publisher and communicator of the firm’s outlook for the financial markets.
SUBSCRIBE TO NEWSLETTER
SUBSCRIBE TO BLOG
TERMS OF SERVICE
© 2018 Intuitive Analysis LLC. All rights reserved.
Be sure you have an RSS feed reader installed. Here are some options.